Unifor's bargaining with the Detroit Three slowly gathers momentum. Unifor's target - GM, Ford or Stellantis - will be announced around Labour Day.
A big question is whether or not the massive government-subsidized EV investments in union and non-union auto plants in southern Ontario have come with bargaining strings attached courtesy of the disgraced Dias regime.
Did Dias make trade-offs to reopen GM Oshawa, get the Stellantis battery plant in Windsor, and initiate the EV transition at GM's CAMI, Ford Oakville, Stellantis Brampton?
Has Dias's relentless agenda of "concessions for investment" handcuffed the new leadership in bargaining with the hugely profitable (and hugely subsidized) Detroit Three?
Following UAW's profit-sharing agreement with Stellantis (formerly FCA/Fiat-Chrysler), Unifor's new president Lana Payne has suggested that profit-sharing is a possible major issue in this round of bargaining...but there's no word on fighting to end two-tier contracts and the 16-year pension freeze.
There are also dangerous signs that Unifor continues to lose ground as a power in auto bargaining. Unifor counts 22,000 members in the Detroit 3 assemblies. Unifor also claims 50% union density in auto parts.
With the new announcement of a new electric VW assembly in St. Thomas with 3,000 production jobs, the non-union assemblies will eventually grow to 13,000 workers, bringing union density in the assemblies down from about 69% to 63%. Non-union EV parts plants will also be opening up around the province, and bring union density below Unifor's claim of 50 percent.
With less union density, bargaining power will decline unless the union organizes the unorganized.
However, there are rumours that Unifor is almost broke, which puts a fork in organizing efforts. There is also evidence to suggest that the 315,000 members claimed by Unifor has fallen significantly and below 300,000.
It's a fact that Unifor's raiding and corruption scandals have been a gift to employers in their quest to keep unions out of the manufacturing sector and its expanding majority non-union workforce.
It has been two decades of concessions for investment. Okay, the EV money is in. Now what?
Was there ever a next step to concessions for investment, or was it the new order of things? Let the old tier retire and begin conceding new two-tier or even third-tier contracts? When does it end? What's the plan?