10 observations about Poilievre's polling lead

 A fascinating poll...here are ten observations...

1. The overwhelming concern around inflation and prices is no surprise and is absolutely the key component of Poilievre's rise in support (which is now a couple points short of Harper's 2011 ceiling of 39 percent).

2. Poilievre's hammering on inflation is not being challenged by any other force. Where is the NDP on inflation? Nowhere. They're in bed with Trudeau. Where is labour on inflation? Nowhere. There is still no sign by organized labour to meet the extraordinary crisis with any kind of united effort it demands. There has been no call for price controls on essentials.

3. High concern with healthcare is ripe for a right-wing solutions which are already advancing, like privatizing day surgeries and contracting out. Where is the labour response on healthcare? Nowhere. No strikes, no protest movements, no occupations, no signs of any unions seeking to meet a single government on the battlefield since the AUPE wildcat in October 2020.

4. The Trudeau vs Poilievre polling is interesting but also unhelpful because it excludes Singh. Singh has to be in the mix to get a real idea of what kind of room Trudeau really has to fend off Poilievre.

5. There's a real gender split on Trudeau: men overwhelmingly oppose, but women are a plurality in support. This has very bad implications from multiple perspectives.

6. Once again, the Nanos poll showing a big NDP bump to 26 percent hasn't been confirmed by other pollsters. The NDP languishes at its traditional 20 percent support.

7. A majority of Dippers support Trudeau 52% to 44%. This is astonishing.

8. As predicted, Poilievre has largely reabsorbed the dissident right PPC.

9. Poilievre's lead in Ontario is his path to power, especially with Liberal-NDP vote-splitting.

10. We are approaching two real possibilities before the next election:

• Trudeau steps down before next election - likely 2023, with Freeland winning leadership race.
• The Liberal-NDP coalition evolves towards some kind of non-compete pact to defeat Poilievre.