This Abacus poll published July 30 shows a Conservative plurality of support in every age group, including a 2 point lead in the 18-29 age group, and 1 point lead in the 30-44 age group. The Conservatives even have a 1 point lead among women.
That said, the Conservatives are only at 35 points, the Liberals 30, NDP 19, and Greens 4. The People's Party is at 4, too. Here is the full poll.
The popular hatred of Trudeau - which is far beyond and is far deeper than Conservative ranks - cannot be overstated. The Conservatives are also enjoying a bump along with Poilievre. There is also the Freedom Convoy to consider as an attraction for some, especially among young people.
Meanwhile, the progressive blob in Canada - Liberals, NDP, Greens - has been comatose for a long while now. The Liberal childcare plan ought to have been a major political coup for the Liberals coming out of the first year of the pandemic, but the inexplicable Liberal drive to secure a new mandate led to a Trudeau-Ford non-aggression pact in which the Trudeau Liberals burned through whatever political capital they might have gained with the childcare program in Ontario. Only the NDP's dismal performance and rising PPC fortunes kept the Liberals ahead of the Tories in Ontario.
Meanwhile, the NDP's de facto role in propping up Trudeau during the pandemic was sealed shortly after the Freedom Convoy with the coalition deal. The alleged alternative is tied to Liberal fortunes until 2025, meaning the NDP now plays the role of Liberal backbenchers.
Freeland's recent assurances around the NDP dental care program - the only NDP demand agreed to by Trudeau - are not very convincing. The clock is ticking on getting this program up and running before the 2025 election, and unless legislation is introduced in September the program will not be official in 2022.
In Ottawa and in the provincial legislatures, there is no sign of significant divergence within the progressive blob on economic questions, climate policy, housing, or foreign policy.
The NDP's remaining linkages to organized labour have delivered card check in British Columbia, but nothing else. The Ontario NDP ran an election divorced from mounting strike activity over wages, while the BC NDP and Trudeau Liberals (backed by Singh) advance significant wage cuts in bargaining with, respectively, the BCGEU and PSAC.
Union brass around the country have made no moves to forge any kind of common front on the inflation question. A crisis like this once generated emergency conventions and the forging of province-wide battle plans (however faulty), but there is no sign of life on this front.
The progressive blob and the union brass offer nothing, or worse. The task remains the same: the reconstruction of local socialist organizations and networks of workers in their unions and workplaces.